Chart of the Day EURUSD

forex guide

Chart of the Day EURUSD

Pivotal Decision Point EURUSD

Underlying drivers for FX seem little changed or now FX volatility remains low, as of writing we have exceeded the ranges seen also in 2007 and 2014 at the lows. Easy money outside the US, especially in the Eurozone, prevents significant Dollar weakness. But the US Administration’s current focus on the currency and prior Fed cuts and ongoing bill purchases are likely to become Dollar negatives.

With growth projections showing moderately slower US real GDP growth over time and somewhat higher Eurozone growth. Fed Chair Powell admits that cuts seem more likely than hikes and some yield curve recession signals still point to hard landing risks. If so, the Dollar has tended to depreciate in past cycles perhaps by 5% or more. This 5% level is interesting as the last time markets tested this current implied 1 month volatility lows the markers experienced a subsequent 5% move, however, in both instances this move was to the downside. Volatility does not inform the directional move simply the scale of the move.

Although the European Central Bank actions are nonetheless designed with a weaker EUR in mind, the market is currently ignoring Lagarde’s warnings that the ECB is not on autopilot, combined with US President Trump and his Administration who are actively trying to cap Dollar upside both via firing warnings to the ECB and jawboning the Fed for further cuts. The Fed is adding significant Dollar liquidity. In time this should prove Dollar negative and bearing EUR volatility sinking to new lows, there is the chance for imbalances to be addressed.

From a technical and trading perspective, the EURUSD is testing weekly trendline support sited at  1.0950, if this level is held on the weekly close it may prove a catalyst for some profit taking on short positions, at a minimum this would require a daily close back above 1.10 and more importantly through 1.1015 to flip the daily chart bullish from a Volume Weighted Average price perspective. If this reversal plays out we could look for a relatively quick retest of 1.11 and subsequent move to challenge year to date highs above 1.12. If the weekly trendline fails to hold look for increased long liquidation and a move to challenge the 2019 lows and the yearly first support pivot point and the monthly second support pivot, with the potential for a significant double bottom to develop.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

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