GBP Weekly Forecast (Feb. 17 – 21)

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Sterling has been one of the strongest performers in the past week, but can it hold on to its gains with this week’s big catalysts?

Employment data (Feb. 18, 9:30 am GMT)

  • January claimant count to increase by 22.6K vs. previous 14.9K gain
  • Unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.8% for another month
  • Average earnings index to dip from 3.2% to 3.1% in three-month period ending in December

Inflation figures (Feb. 19, 9:30 am GMT)

  • Headline CPI to jump from 1.3% to 1.7% in January
  • Core CPI to climb from 1.4% to 1.5%
  • PPI input prices to post 0.5% dip after earlier 0.1% uptick
  • PPI output prices to rise by 0.1% after previous flat reading

Flash PMI readings (Feb. 21, 9:30 am GMT)

  • Reading above 50.0 reflects expansion, below 50.0 indicates contraction
  • U.K. flash manufacturing PMI to dip from 50.0 to 49.7 in Feb
  • U.K. flash services PMI to fall from 53.9 to 53.4 in Feb

Technical snapshot

  • Trend strength analysis reveals that sterling pairs are all looking bullish but that Cable’s trend is weakening.
GBP Trend Strength from MarketMilk
GBP Trend Strength from MarketMilk
  • Stochastic paints a mixed picture, with sterling in overbought territory against the franc, euro, and yen.
GBP Stochastic from MarketMilk
GBP Stochastic from MarketMilk


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