GBP Weekly Forecast (May 18 – 22)

GBP Weekly Forecast (May 18 – 22)

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FOREX SIGNALS

Sterling found itself deep in the red last week and looks prime for another decline this time.

Jobs data, CPI, PMI readings, and the retail sales report are on the docket, possibly highlighting the impact of the pandemic on the U.K. economy last month.

Here’s a list of potential catalysts you need to pay attention to:

Employment figures (May 19, 7:00 am GMT)

  • April claimant count to increase by 150K versus previous 12.2K gain
  • Average earnings index to dip from 2.8% to 2.7% in March
  • Unemployment rate to rise from 4.0% to 4.4% in March

Inflation reports (May 20, 7:00 am GMT)

  • Headline CPI to slump from 1.5% to 1.9% y/y in April
  • Core CPI to fall from 1.6% to 1.4% in April
  • PPI input prices to show 4.2% drop after earlier 3.6% decline
  • PPI output prices to fall by 0.5% after previous 0.2% dip

BOE Governor Bailey’s speech (May 20, 2:30 pm GMT)

  • Head of central bank to testify on the economic impact of COVID-19 before the Treasury Select Committee, along with three BOE MPC members
  • A downbeat outlook and hints of further easing could mean more downside for GBP pairs

PMI readings (May 21, 9:30 am GMT)

  • Markit flash services PMI to improve from 13.4 to 20.0 in May
  • Markit flash manufacturing PMI to rise from 32.6 to 35.1 in May
  • Reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below 50.0 reflects contraction

Technical snapshot

  • Moving averages show that GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD are looking bullish but in a weakening trend.
  Dollar slips as lockdown restrictions ease
GBP Pairs Moving Averages from MarketMilk
GBP Pairs Moving Averages from MarketMilk
  • The rest of the pairs are in bearish territory, except for EUR/GBP which is looking strongly bullish.
  • Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions for most sterling pairs.

GBP Weekly Forecast (May 18 – 22)

Missed last week’s price action? Read GBP’s price recap for May 11 – 15!

TABLE OF CONTENTS (click the following links and read again).



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