NZD Weekly Forecast (Feb. 10 – 14)

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The RBNZ is up this week! Here are events to watch if you’re planning on trading the New Zealand dollar this week.

RBNZ’s statement (Feb 12, 1:00 am GMT)

  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its rates at 1.0% in November, surprising many who had expected a rate cut
  • RBNZ shared that “economic developments do not warrant a change…at this time
  • NZD gained sharply against its major counterparts
  • Stronger economic data and caution before seeing the official economic impact of Coronavirus make analysts believe that RBNZ won’t change its policies this month

Manufacturing PMI (Feb 13, 9:30 pm GMT)

  • Business NZ’s manufacturing PMI fell from 51.2 to 49.3 in December
  • Markets see the PMI popping back up to 51.0 in January
  • RBNZ considers business reports like these in their decisions, but its impact may be limited this time since it’s printed after the central bank’s decision

Technical snapshot:

  • RSI and Keltner Channel flag NZD as “oversold” against USD on the daily time frame
  • Stochastic points to NZD’s “oversold” conditions against AUD, CAD, JPY, and USD
  • Williams %R believes NZD is “oversold” against AUD, EUR, CAD, CHF, JPY, and USD
  • Bollinger Bands see NZD as “oversold” against CAD

  • NZD/CAD, NZD/CHF, NZD/JPY, and NZD/USD are trading below their short and long-term SMAs on the daily
  • EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD are both trading above their short and long-term SMAs
  • AUD/NZD is trading above its short-term SMAs but below its 200 SMA

Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for February 3 – 7!

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