USD Weekly Review (Feb. 24 – 28)

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The Greenback outpaces the risk currencies while taking a hit against the safe havens in another week dominated by Coronavirus headlines, overshadowing what was arguably a net positive week for U.S. economic data.

Overlay of USD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
Overlay of USD Pairs: 1-Hour Forex Chart
USD Weekly Performance from MarketMilk
USD Weekly Performance from MarketMilk

United States Headlines and Economic data

Monday:

  • Rate futures surge as coronavirus seen pushing Fed to ease
  • Fed’s Mester sees ‘downside risk’ from coronavirus, but does not want to cut rates
  • Dallas Fed factory gauge gains, Adding to signs of stabilization
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Ticks Up in January, Signaling Growth
  • Coronavirus cases outside China surge, prompting traders to start traders the new week in fear mode and really staying that way through Friday.  The U.S. tends to benefit against the majors in this type of environment, which was once again the case with exception against the yen), especially with positive U.S. updates during the morning U.S. trading session.

Tuesday:

  • Home prices increase 3.8% in December, according to the S&P Case-Shiller index
  • Markets bet Fed is pushed to cut rates in coronavirus response
  • Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey increased 13 points in February to 36.1, highest level since Nov. 2018
  • US consumer confidence for February comes in at 130.7, vs 132.6 expected
  • Manufacturing Activity Softens in February — Richmond Fed
  • Fed Vice Chair Clarida says it’s still too soon to tell on coronavirus, but will ‘respond accordingly’
  • Coronavirus further isolates Iran, strains South Korea, Italy – we began to see divergence in the U.S. dollar’s performance as Coronavirus fears intensified, prompting the main safe havens and the euro to out perform the Greenback.
  HLHB Trend-Catcher System Update (February 17 – 21)

Wednesday:

  • Fed’s Kaplan says unclear right now if coronavirus calls for U.S. rate change: WSJ
  • US new home sales surge to 12.5-year high in January
  • New coronavirus cases outside China exceeded those in China for the first time, WHO says

Thursday:

  • Trump puts Mike Pence in charge of response to coronavirus, says US risk ‘remains very low’
  • US orders for durable goods slip 0.2% in January
  • U.S. jobless claims rise in latest week to 219,000 in the latest week from a revised 211,000 the previous week
  • US fourth-quarter economic growth unrevised at 2.1%
  • January pending home sales jump more than expected, up 5.2%
  • CDC confirms first US coronavirus case of ‘unknown’ origin; California monitors over 8,000

Friday:

  • Chicago manufacturing index edged up to 49.0 in February
  • U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves Slightly More Than Initially Estimated
  • Fed’s Powell says economy is fine but Fed ready to act as needed
  • ‘Risk is very high,’ warns WHO, as coronavirus wipes $6 trillion off markets
  • Mexico among 8 more countries to report first confirmed coronavirus cases

TABLE OF CONTENTS (click the following links and read again).



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